вторник, 15 октября 2013 г.
Why is someone who seriously suggests we have to pass the bill so you can find out what is in it sti
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Months after TTAC started to relentlessly bleat about the glut of money flowing into the auto loan sector, the mainstream media is finally alaskan cruise inside passage taking notice. Automotive News is finally expressing alaskan cruise inside passage some worry over the factors that we ve been discussing for some time: car loan terms are getting longer ( to help keep payments low ), subprime lending is increasing and an expected rise in interest rates could put an end to the new car market s exuberant performance.
This phenomenon is being primarily driven by low-interest rates , which allow consumers alaskan cruise inside passage to finance vehicles cheaply, even as transaction prices creep upwards. Meanwhile, financial institutions are happy to provide the loans, particularly to those with poor credit , since they can be securitized and sold off to fixed income clients looking to get decent yields in the same low-interest environment .
The topic of auto financing has been rather divisive, to say the least, and we at TTAC remain bearish alaskan cruise inside passage on the outcome , though the likelihood of any systemic risk seems to be diminished as OEMs choose to expand existing factories rather than build new ones. But we re hardly alone anymore .
as a counterpoint to Mr. DeadWeight s statistic, taken as a percentage of personal income, we see the opposite. If you look up Household Debt Service alaskan cruise inside passage ratio statistics, debt payments as a percentage of disposable income in the U.S. is at historic lows as of 3rd Qtr. 2013 at 10.4% Lower than it was in the 90 s, lower than it was in the 80 s, and far lower than it was pre-recession in 07 (14%). Technically speaking, consumer balance sheets now are in great shape. Add in the average vehicle age, and pent up demand, I don t see the nose dive being called for here in auto sales.
Excellent points. I suspect we ll hear similar info tomorrow from the Federal Reserve. Deleveraging is on. We ll hear from Experian about the condition of consumer credit scores, another issue. It takes a while to rehabilitate those.
And while consumer debt now reaches alaskan cruise inside passage new records alaskan cruise inside passage on a monthly basis, the interest rates (i.e. debt service costs) on much of this underlying growing debt will not remain constant over any time period exceeding the intermediate term, at best (see revolving consumer alaskan cruise inside passage debt/credit ).
In reply to DeadWeight and darkwing, while there certainly are limitations in the debt service metric, it s also worth noting that contrary to what s stated, the level of revolving credit outstanding is lower today (~$850B) than it was in 2008 (~$1T) or 2009 ($917B). Yes overall Total Oustanding debt is higher, but the majority of that is NonRevolving and is a result alaskan cruise inside passage of Federally backed Student Loan related (an entirely different issue in and of itself). The amount of money outstanding specifically owed on Motor Vehicle Loans in 2008 was $777B. In 2013 it s $840B. considering 5 years time has passed, that s an increase of less than 2.5% per year (roughly the rate of inflation).
The car market s on fire because alaskan cruise inside passage it s easier to qualify a person for a 6-year loan less than $100,000 than a 30-year loan around $300,000. If you default, they just take the car right back and sell it.
There is so much pent up demand in the automotive market alaskan cruise inside passage an expected bump in interest rates isn t going to cause much harm, if any. Automakers can absorb a certain amount of a rise in rates by providing subventions paid for out of the increased gross profit their are currently making on their products. Leasing is on fire, a much better way to lower monthly payments alaskan cruise inside passage while providing better options to consumers, alaskan cruise inside passage options like shorter term and an easy out if the market goes south on their vehicle. Dealers like the increased consumer loyalty and the opportunity to do business with their customer more often, plus the stream of pedigreed used vehicle inventory.
I thought the whole thing with a lease is that you can t get out of it, there is no easy out if the market goes south on their vehicle ? I always thought the penalties for early termination of leases were harsh.
If things go south wouldn t you prefer to have a walk away option at 36 months rather than having to sell at a loss or wait for a longer period of time to get rid of a vehicle you don t like or doesn t fit your needs any more?
You generally can t get out of a lease early, but your only obligation alaskan cruise inside passage is to continue the payments until the term ends, turn the car in. If you buy with the hope of selling or trading after a few years, you stand the risk of the value declining. Conversely a lessor stands the risk with a leased vehicle.
I would mildly disagree with Ruggles s assertion that leasing is a great panacea for auto purchases. I won t deny that it makes sense for some purchases but I think if most people alaskan cruise inside passage sat down and really thought of it, leases would be less popular and not more popular.
If things go south wouldn't alaskan cruise inside passage you prefer to have a walk away option at 36 months rather alaskan cruise inside passage than having to sell at a loss or wait for a longer period of time to get rid of a vehicle alaskan cruise inside passage you don't like or doesn't fit your needs any more?
That s all true, and I understand about the bit about having a car always under warranty and having maintenance covered. However, I feel that I would rather take my time to shop and do my homework to find the right car in the first place, and pick one adequately versatile that changes in needs won t instantly necessitate a trip to the car dealer.
For me, when I car shopped last year I looked at almost every option I could. I test drove a VW GTI, MINI Cooper S, and FIAT 500. I kicked the tires on a Honda Civic Si, Scion tC, Scion FR-S, and Hyundai Genesis 2.0T. I was an admitted pest at dealers and I commend them all for their patience. I was not hesitant to walk away from cars that just didn t feel right to me. I took almost half a year to make my final decision. Personally, I just happened to spy an ad one day for an absolute gem of a 2006 Acura RSX Type-S and I wound up with that and I simply could not be happier.
Now am I perfect? Of course not. In 2009 I had a baby on the way and I felt like I needed a car. I rushed into an absolute stinker of a Chevrolet because the price was great. I was stung when I eventually dumped it in 11 by the loss I took to get rid of it. But so far, I am running at 3 solid hits, 1 strike, and 1 foul ball in car purchases. So I am doing so-so right now. I think I have figured things out in that field and I am going to take care of the cars that I have right now and keep them for as long as I can.
I can only hope someone in their early 20 s will read this and not make the same mistakes I did. A car is a serious large purchase and should be undertaken only with great consideration and research. Picking alaskan cruise inside passage the right car in the beginning easily beats leasing hands-down in the vast majority of cases.
Yeah, you ve absorbed the Kool-aid, friend. It s Congresses fault. Never mind that Reid and Obama have moved the goal posts by now demanding that Uncle Sugar s money flow be restored to pre-sequester levels.
I find it telling that the GOP believes that increasing the debt ceiling (which merely finances the spending that the Congress itself has previously approved) or continued operation of the government is somehow doing a favor for the president.
I find it telling that with all of the supposed savings that have supposedly been implemented the Democrats think the world will end unless alaskan cruise inside passage they get to borrow even more money. Which they will use to pay the interest on the money they borrowed before.
But the legislature alaskan cruise inside passage already created these obligations, and is now throwing a tantrum over those same obligations as if they somehow alaskan cruise inside passage came from outer space. They decided to incur these bills; if they didn t want to have those bills, then they shouldn t have agreed to have them in the first place.
The most offensive aspect of the situation is that Boner only enjoys the majority he has due to creative districting. When he says, as justification for his intransigence, People don t want Obamacare, that s an interesting thing to say, as the people seem to have returned Obama to office and maintained a Democrat-led Senate (where districting doesn t matter as much).
What Boner s really trying to head off is a revolt against his leadership; he has to mollify the extreme right in his party to stay in power. He can t tell them to shut up and get on with the business of governing effectively.
The Teapublicans just want to wave the Confederate flag in front of a black families house on Pennsylvania Avenue that thought that passing the Republicans own Romnneycare healthcare plan would help the 40% of the American people that had third worldlike healthcare.
alaskan cruise inside passage BTW, American manufacturing alaskan cruise inside passage would be more competitive if we had a more efficient healthcare system and maybe I could get that orange spyder roadster I always wanted alaskan cruise inside passage with the healthcare savings on both ends.
Why is someone who seriously suggests we have to pass the bill so you can find out what is in it still holding office? Ludicrous statements such as this helped bring about the guillotine (incidentally alaskan cruise inside passage this person is one of the richest members of Congress).
REALLY?! Because alaskan cruise inside passage all of the terrorist I have dealt with had a playbook that called for shooting 7.62 at me and detonating explosive devices under my vehicles. But sure, equate people who govern in a manner you don t agree with with dudes like Bin Laden and his ilk who you know, commit acts of mass murder against civilians. And we wonder why the two sides are so at each other. I will listen all day to people who d
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